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On December 14, 2013 China Paper Industry Sustainable Development Forum hosted by China News Service, China Newsweek and APP(China) was held in Beijing. More than 100 guests from government agencies, enterprises, industry associations and academia had in-depth discussions on the current situation of China's paper market in the Internet era and the transformation and upgrading of the paper industry. Participants believe that as an important part of the national economy and people's life, paper will not die out.

confidence

Paper industry in the national economy of basic raw material industry status has not changed; Printing paper accounts for less than 40% of China's total paper production; Packaging paper and household paper are necessities of life, accounting for more than 60 percent; At present, there are more than 6,000 kinds of paper that can be named in the world, while there are less than 700 kinds in China. The market potential is still large.

Paper will not die

Bie Tao, Deputy Director General of the Policy and Regulation Department of the Ministry of Environmental Protection: As an ordinary consumer, I am optimistic about the future of paper. At present, the quality of paper is improving and its use is becoming more and more extensive. Now we read less paper books, but we are happy to get a book that is beautifully printed. Many publishers now produce beautiful books with the kind of decoration and design that cannot be replaced by electronic products. It's convenient to pull out a tablet or phone and read, but there's no substitute for the beauty of reading a book.

The paper industry is our basic industry and traditional industry. We can't live without paper. Environmental protection, industry, forestry and other departments attach importance to the development of paper industry. We hope the paper industry to optimize the product structure and production technology. However, when the environmental tolerance reaches the limit, the external environmental pressure is transferred to enterprises, and the country also pushes enterprises to internalize the environmental cost through price, tax and other means. This is also a kind of management, the purpose is to force enterprises to improve the level of management. We would like to see this industry develop itself while improving the quality of our lives, so as to form a win-win or all-win situation.

Cao Chunyu, President of China Pulp and Paper Research Institute: Now the traditional printing and writing paper accounts for a smaller and smaller share of all paper, of course, it will not suddenly become a dominant position. I wouldn't worry that declining newsprint sales will affect the life and death of the paper industry. Because newsprint is produced in millions of tons. This application gap is easy to pick up in other areas.

Zhao Wei, vice president of China Paper Association: Some statistics have shown that at present, there are more than 6000 kinds of paper that can be named in the world, and our country can be named less than 700 kinds of products. IT, multimedia and so on have a negative impact on flat paper media. But printing paper accounts for less than 40% of the paper industry.

At present, the paper industry is facing the pressure of slowing down the growth rate, rising production costs and increasing constraints on resources and environment. Paper production and management encountered some difficulties, both external factors, but also in the development of their own problems need to be solved. However, the position of paper industry in the national economy will not be fundamentally changed, and the high demand elasticity coefficient unique to the industry will continue to keep pace with the development of the national economy. The paper industry must strengthen confidence and enhance the competitiveness and anti-risk ability of the industry by accelerating the transformation of the mode, adjusting the structure and relying on scientific and technological progress and innovation.

Ma Zhiming, general manager of APP(China) Culture Paper Division: We must turn off our electronic devices when taking off and landing. At that time everyone picked up books and newspapers to read. This is something that e-books cannot do. Therefore, as a better tool for cultural inheritance, I think books are more powerful. From the perspective of public and private, of course, paper may fade in the future, but it will not disappear.

Xu Xitu, general manager of Jinhongye Paper Group Co., LTD. : In 1997, the average consumption of household paper in China was only 0.6 kg, and even less in the early days. Back in the 1950s, when I was a child, I used bamboo skewers or straw to get into the hut. It may be difficult for young people to understand this way of life now. If paper disappeared, safety and hygiene requirements could not keep up, what situation would we face? Should say, our country living paper quality and dosage will promote gradually with people demand for quality of life. Under these conditions, going back to a paperless world, we would probably use a lot of water. This is unrealistic.

Zhang Ping, Assistant President of China News Service: According to the latest data released by the China Paper Association, the domestic output of newsprint in the first three quarters of this year was about 2.8 million tons, down 4% year on year. This verifies that the development of intelligent information carrier leads to the general trend of continuous decline in printing paper. But industry insiders generally believe that the demand for packaging paper and household paper will continue to grow in China as urbanization progresses and people's lifestyles change.

analysis

The demand for wrapping paper has nothing to do with the Internet. The main reason for the decline in production and sales is the decline in packaging paper for export products and domestic demand. The newly added capacity is slightly greater than the outdated capacity that has been eliminated, and the transition between the old and the new finally reflects the relatively stable production and marketing

The "zero growth" in paper production is not all the fault of the Internet

Sun Jian, Deputy Director General, Department of Development Planning and Fund Management, State Forestry Administration: A few years ago, when I was on an inspection tour in Europe, I once asked a famous paper manufacturer whether the development of computer and network technology would have any impact on the development of paper industry. Their conclusion is that, after a lot of research and investigation, the development of the web and the development of paper is synchronized.

Now there is a big gap between Chinese paper consumption and developed countries. Of course, as offices go paperless, there may be some reductions in office paper. However, daily use of paper will be increased to some extent, will also continue to expand the market, such as we wash hands after the paper wipe hands, after eating paper wipe mouth. Paper has its own characteristics and advantages, some areas computer can replace, some areas can not replace. With the improvement of national living standard, the demand for art and culture will be more and more high, nature cannot leave the paper as the carrier.

Cao Chunyu, President of China Pulp and Paper Research Institute: As a basic raw material industry, China's paper industry has entered a severe winter after long-term extensive growth. Data from the China Paper Association showed that in the first three quarters of this year, China's paper and board production was 87.6634 million tons, up only 0.83% year on year, 2.39 percentage points lower than the growth rate of 2012; Pulp production was 4.15% lower than the same period in 2012. With the advent of the Internet era with paperless features and the popularity of the concept of environmental protection, the public's attitude and habit towards paper and the production and operation of the paper industry are changing.

The main reason that causes paper output "zero growth" is that our country foreign trade increment is slowing down obviously. This piece of paper and cardboard sales impact is relatively large. In addition, domestic demand growth has been slow. If domestic demand does not improve within this year, paper production and sales will decline. As domestic demand increases steadily and slightly, paper production will remain stable in these two years.

In the past two years, a large number of small enterprises with high resource consumption and weak market competitiveness have been eliminated by national environmental protection policies and the market. When these small enterprises were eliminated, a lot of new advanced production capacity followed, and the new production capacity was slightly greater than the eliminated capacity. This is a process of the replacement of new and old capacity, which is ultimately reflected in the relatively stable production and sales volume of the industry.

Viewpoint 1

Our urbanization rate and people's living standard rise step by step

Rural areas and second -, third - and fourth-tier cities have great consumption potential

Cao Chunyu, President of China Pulp and Paper Research Institute: China's paper and board production and sales will not show a high growth trend in the future, but will definitely grow at a medium speed. Although this year and next year, our paper production and sales growth rate will be very poor. But in the future our paper making output growth source must come from domestic demand enhancement. The acceleration of urbanization will definitely promote domestic demand.

The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other economically developed areas account for less than half of China's population. The population of big economic belt and big economic circle only accounts for about 30% of our total population. With the improvement of urbanization rate, the demand of living paper and packaging will rise.

The population of Chinese big - in - medium cities has already entered the consumption level of developed country. But consumption levels in rural and remote areas are still low. As long as the level of consumption in these areas can improve a step, the total demand will be very large.

Xu Xitu, general manager of Jinhongye Paper Group Co., LTD. : In terms of the world's household paper market, the average consumption of paper in China is only 4.2kg. And North America as high as 23kg - 25kg, the two markets are very different. The per capita consumption of paper in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has reached 7-8 kg. And the mainland second -, third - and fourth-tier cities market blank still exists. According to the current GDP growth of China, the consumption of household paper in China is lagging behind, and this market has great potential.

At present the growth rate of consumption of paper in our country is much higher than global average. After a lot of research, we believe that under this condition, the market of household paper has a great development space. Therefore, we actively carried out market layout and promoted the strategy of "One hen with several chickens", that is, taking advantage of the integration of forest pulp and paper, we used one base paper production factory (" hen ") to bring several finished product processing plants (" several chickens ") around. In this way, the processing plant can obtain base paper within a reasonable radius, and can supply household paper products to the nearby market.

Now, 60 percent of new hypermarket stores are in second - and third-tier cities. All the new stores opened by several well-known Chinese stores are concentrated in second - and third-tier cities. So, there's going to be an explosion on this side. This is the area where Golden Red Leaf has been actively strengthening. Although the market competition will be more and more fierce, but as long as you grasp the direction, grasp the focus, the growth of an enterprise can be expected.

At present the growth rate of consumption of paper in our country is much higher than global average. After a lot of research, we believe that under this condition, the market of household paper has a great development space. Therefore, we actively carried out market layout and promoted the strategy of "One hen with several chickens", that is, taking advantage of the integration of forest pulp and paper, we used one base paper production factory (" hen ") to bring several finished product processing plants (" several chickens ") around. In this way, the processing plant can obtain base paper within a reasonable radius, and can supply household paper products to the nearby market.

Now, 60 percent of new hypermarket stores are in second - and third-tier cities. All the new stores opened by several well-known Chinese stores are concentrated in second - and third-tier cities. So, there's going to be an explosion on this side. This is the area where Golden Red Leaf has been actively strengthening. Although the market competition will be more and more fierce, but as long as you grasp the direction, grasp the focus, the growth of an enterprise can be expected.

Point two

As the government steps up efforts to eliminate outdated production capacity, public awareness of environmental protection increases and investment slows down, some production capacity that does not meet emissions standards will be eliminated, and production capacity growth will moderate

There will not necessarily be absolute excess capacity three years from now

Cao Chunyu, president of China Pulp and Paper Research Institute: The elimination of outdated production capacity is not a particularly reasonable policy, but it is the most effective policy tool in China. What is backward capacity? There are a lot of criteria for evaluating this thing that are not very clear. But that will never happen in China without such a policy tool.

It is difficult for some local governments to tolerate the complete closure of substandard enterprises in a short period of time, and it is difficult for these enterprises to truly meet environmental standards. This is a dilemma. This shows that some local governments have loopholes in the process of implementing policies. It will stay that way for a while.

But there is one kind of pressure that these enterprises cannot resist, is the increase of people's environmental awareness, and the next generation will absolutely not tolerate this kind of pollution behavior. Therefore, this kind of force will promote the paper industry emission standards in all aspects. When this day comes, paper industry relative overcapacity and local overcapacity problems can be better solved. Now, forced by circumstances, some have scaled back their investments. Some capacity will be changed by market and policy in the future. As a result, it has also reserved some additional capacity that is currently in excess of market capacity. This is a decision made by a business or industry based on its judgment of the present and the future. Now is surplus, but with the market adjustment and changes, three years from now will not necessarily be absolute surplus. Under such pressure, only some enterprises with leading management and technology can survive and wait for the good day.

Xu Xitu, General manager of Jinhongye Paper Group Co., LTD. : The Chinese government is very far-sighted and has adopted many policies to boost domestic demand. In the 12th Five-Year Plan, people's salaries will be doubled. When people have money, they will consume, which will boost domestic demand. When there is demand, the industry will naturally thrive. Therefore, the Chinese government will take a comprehensive consideration when planning. China has such a large consumer group, as long as the domestic demand to stimulate, China's growth need to worry about what. We need to plan ahead, but sometimes we don't need to be too pessimistic.